The Judge – Round 2 – Reigning Premiers

In AFR the Draft and Trades are meant to be the big equalizers. The previous years premiers are handicapped the following year by having to select last in the draft. However because they won the previous year it could be presumed that they already had the best list in the competition. So lets take a quick look at the Blue Flames and the Convicts, see how their draft went and look at their chances of going back to back.

Blue Flames

The Blue Flames entered 2023 with possibly the two best forwards in the competition, 2 of the last 3 Brownlow Medallist as their centre and rover, the luxury to choose between Cumming, Hurn and Docherty for 3 of the 4 Mid / Back positions, and their tagger was former most valuable player in the competition Greenwood. Now while there may be a question about whether Greenwood was past his best years and some uncertainty in his role with the new coach, on paper the only 2 holes in the Blue Flames squad seemed to be a second midfielder and issues around the often injured and potentially soon to retire Natanui in ruck (though they did have some back up there by keeping Xerri).

In the draft they quite sensibly took the best mid available Amon in round 1 and then another mid / back in Saad in round 2. Their investment in Xerri seemingly paid off when he was picked as the sole ruck for North Melbourne in round 1 and was looking like he was on for a great score until in a stroke of bad luck he suffered an injury. And so perhaps in hindsight the only way they could have drafted better would have been to take McInerney with pick 20.

The teams they have selected for the first 2 rounds are basically last years team with Saad slotting into their line up to fill that one missing piece in the mid / back line up. The only other non keeper from last year who looks like they will get any game time is Rhys Stanley who will only play in the ruck until one of Naitanui and Xerri come back from injury.

Look for them to either trade for or pick up a tagger in the MSD in the event that Greenwood’s tackling numbers continue to drop off.

Overall, they look like the best team in the competition and are favourites to go back to back.

The Convicts

The Convicts were probably not the premiership favourites in 2022 and benefitted from a lucky finals draw that saw them facing up against their bunny team Nexus twice for an easy path into the grand final. There they faced an undermanned Sons line up who likely would have beaten them had the Sons not suffered a late withdrawal.

Overall their team has a mixture of Superstars and solid role players. McKay is a recent Coleman medallist, with Hawthorn’s terrible prospects Sicily is going to be the best player in AFR this year, and Nankervis looks like he is going to be one of the best rucks this year as Richmond seems to be not playing Soldo in a twin ruck set up this season. Cumming again looks great this year and Merrett continues to perform above expectations as a centre. Their main areas of concern seem to be forward as Walker enters the twilight of his career and they don’t seem to have an elite tagger.

In the PSD they picked up Witherden in round 1, Tim English in round 2 and Redman in round 3. The Witherden selection becomes more understandable if Naomi had foreseen the rebounding demise of previous defensive stud and number 2 draft pick Jordan Ridley, but he wouldn’t have been my choice. The English selection is also a head scratcher, but Redman at pick 30 has to be one of the steals of the draft so far this year. Waiting until round 4 before selecting their replacement forward might have seemed too long but the only quality forward they could have got earlier was Oscar Allen and they would have had to use their first round pick to get him.

Overall their team got better due to the draft, but probably overall got worse as previous star players Walker and Ridley seem to have dropped off. Though Sicily could literally be worth an extra 10 points this year…

The Convicts finished 9^th on the ladder in 2020 & 2021 (the years immediately preceding their premiership) and so are the inspiration for every other team going through a rebuilding phase (Hey Guru, has any team ever come from further down the ladder to win a title?). But I am nervous that they both peaked and overperformed last year. Finals beckon but perhaps the only road that leads to another premiership is to run into Nexus in the final again…